Unseen deaths in global crises demand timelier estimates and faster action

By Bharat Dogra  

It is now widely recognized that the global humanitarian crisis has reached an extremely serious stage. Even more worrying is the growing likelihood that conditions will deteriorate further during 2026.

The reasons are clear. Conflicts and destabilisation are increasing due to aggressive and short-sighted policies promoted by powerful actors, coupled with the weakening of peacebuilding efforts at local levels. Although the overwhelming majority of people desire peace, this sentiment does not translate into organisational strength, as the forces driving violence are far more powerful. 

Several governments and leaders continue to fuel conflicts to pursue narrow strategic objectives—controlling minerals, oil, farmland, territory and other resources, or strengthening geo-political influence. With peace-building institutions weakened, conflicts are lasting longer and spreading, pushing many more societies to the brink of humanitarian collapse.

Secondly, the growing reliance on sweeping economic sanctions is creating entirely avoidable crises—or sharply worsening those that already exist.

Thirdly, funding for humanitarian action is shrinking even as needs expand dramatically. Operational infrastructure and support for relief work are also declining. Many respected humanitarian organisations, including some with strong global reputations, now face regulatory and political restrictions that prevent them from operating in places where their presence is desperately required. Meanwhile, deaths of aid workers, doctors, health personnel and whistleblowers in the line of duty are rising at an unprecedented pace.

Added to this is the escalating impact of climate change, which is producing highly adverse, erratic and unpredictable disasters. In regions already scarred by conflict, displacement and scarcity, such shocks can rapidly magnify existing suffering or trigger entirely new humanitarian emergencies.

In these circumstances, the international community must treat the strengthening of humanitarian response capacities as an immediate priority.

Conservative estimates suggest that between 200 and 300 million people are currently affected by humanitarian emergencies. The figure most commonly cited is about 240 million. Yet in 2025, less than half of the funding required for an adequate response was available. The situation in 2026 is unlikely to improve and could worsen further.

To address this widening gap, governments and humanitarian organisations must expand funding, strengthen safeguards for humanitarian workers and medical personnel, and enable relief agencies to operate without obstruction.

Equally important is the urgently needed improvement in mortality estimates in humanitarian crises—including deaths caused by the denial or delay of aid. Accurate, timely mortality assessments can play a crucial role in raising public awareness and convincing decision-makers of the scale and urgency of the response required.

For example, if an estimated 250 million people were affected by serious crises last year and less than half of necessary funding was provided, humanitarian agencies and independent experts should collaborate to produce three key sets of estimates:

Total mortality within identified crisis settings.

Excess mortality, measuring deaths above normal rates for a comparable population.

Preventable mortality, estimating how many lives could have been saved if adequate aid and protection had been available.

If 250 million people were affected but received less than half the required assistance—amid worsening conflict and climate impacts—could even a conservative 5% mortality rate plausibly be attributed to unmet needs? That would imply more than 12 million avoidable deaths. Timely and transparent estimates of this kind would help galvanise global action and reduce the scale of ongoing tragedy.

Such assessments must be made available promptly so that they can contribute meaningfully to preventing further suffering and loss of life.

---

The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Protecting Earth for Children, Planet in Peril, Earth Without Borders and A Day in 2071