60 crore in Mahakumbh? It's hype with eye on UP polls: Keen BJP supporter in Amit Shah's constituency

By Rajiv Shah

As the Mahakumbh drew to a close, during my daily walk, I met a veteran BJP supporter—a neighbor with whom we would often share dinner in a group. An amicable person, the first thing he asked me, as he was about to take the lift to his flat, was, "How many people do you think must have participated in the holy dip?" He then stopped by to talk—which we did for a full half-hour, cutting into my walk time.

I had already done some analysis by uploading drone-taken images to two different AI sites, so I counter-questioned, "Sixty crore seems highly exaggerated, but what is your take?"

This gentleman, who had just returned from a walk and had bought a Hindi newspaper about 500 meters from our housing society, replied, "Absolutely… but I have made my calculations."

And this is what he told me: The UP government "appears to have counted those who live in Prayagraj and bathe twice a day… Let me make a rough estimate. That would mean that, daily, approximately 30 to 40 lakh people take a 'holy dip' in the Ganga at home."

Then he continued, "I added those who come from outside. They would stay in the city for at least a full day and take a holy dip at least twice. If they stay longer, they take a dip two more times a day. So, each time these people bathe, they must have been counted. That is how they arrived at 60 crore."

But how many people does he actually believe took the holy dip? He asked me directly, "Did you go to the Mahakumbh?"

I said, "No."

He asked the same question to another person who had joined our conversation, who also replied in the negative. Then he continued, "I also didn't go... There are 2,000 people living in our housing society. I doubt if more than 10-15% of them would have gone to the Mahakumbh."

Only 10-15%? Ours is a largely pro-BJP housing society, part of Union Home Minister Amit Shah's constituency. Still, so few? I posed this question, and he replied, "Yes… You see, it's a political hype created by UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath with an eye on the upcoming UP elections, scheduled for October this year. Not without reason, there is a political slugfest around the Mahakumbh."

Being from UP himself and knowing every bit of Allahabad (now Prayagraj) quite well, he explained, "If Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, even after taking the holy dip, called the Ganga water dirty and warned that it might cause illness or death, Yogi hit back, saying vultures get only dead bodies and pigs get dirt—making Akhilesh furious."

He continued, "My rough estimate is that no more than 30 crore people have been to the Mahakumbh—half of Yogi’s estimate. Most of the attendees are from areas neighboring Prayagraj, mainly from UP, followed by Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttarakhand."

Explaining the "political hype" around the Mahakumbh, this BJP supporter said, "The claim that this Mahakumbh is a once-in-144-years event was widely propagated, attracting people from across India. Even people from faraway South India reached the Mahakumbh in large numbers… Frankly, I don't understand this 144-year claim. It seems like a political move with an eye on the UP elections."

I used two AI sites to estimate the number of people in drone images of the Mahakumbh—a method reportedly used by the Yogi government to justify the 60 crore estimate, which is nearly half of India's population.

Using different methodologies, the first AI estimated that, assuming a density of 3 to 5 persons per square meter, the number of people in the image must be between 18,000 and 30,000.

Another AI estimate, based on a different image, identified three zones—high, medium, and low density—where there were approximately 33,750, 32,400, and 18,750 people, respectively, bringing the headcount to 84,900.

I then uploaded a third drone image, and this is what the AI told me:

"Based on refined segmentation, approximately 17.25% of the visible area is occupied by the crowd. Given an estimated real-world area of 1 square kilometer (1,000,000 square meters), the occupied crowd area is around 172,500 square meters."

It added: "Using a density estimate of 4–6 people per square meter, the refined headcount estimate ranges between 690,000 to 1.03 million people. This refined estimate accounts for a more accurate segmentation of the crowd."

Comments

New RTI draft rules inspired by citizen-unfriendly, overtly bureaucratic approach

By Venkatesh Nayak* The Department of Personnel and Training , Government of India has invited comments on a new set of Draft Rules (available in English only) to implement The Right to Information Act, 2005 . The RTI Rules were last amended in 2012 after a long period of consultation with various stakeholders. The Government’s move to put the draft RTI Rules out for people’s comments and suggestions for change is a welcome continuation of the tradition of public consultation. Positive aspects of the Draft RTI Rules While 60-65% of the Draft RTI Rules repeat the content of the 2012 RTI Rules, some new aspects deserve appreciation as they clarify the manner of implementation of key provisions of the RTI Act. These are: Provisions for dealing with non-compliance of the orders and directives of the Central Information Commission (CIC) by public authorities- this was missing in the 2012 RTI Rules. Non-compliance is increasingly becoming a major problem- two of my non-compliance cases are...

History, culture and literature of Fatehpur, UP, from where Maulana Hasrat Mohani hailed

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* Maulana Hasrat Mohani was a member of the Constituent Assembly and an extremely important leader of our freedom movement. Born in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh, Hasrat Mohani's relationship with nearby district of Fatehpur is interesting and not explored much by biographers and historians. Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri has written a book on Maulana Hasrat Mohani and Fatehpur. The book is in Urdu. He has just come out with another important book, 'Hindi kee Pratham Rachna: Chandayan' authored by Mulla Daud Dalmai.' During my recent visit to Fatehpur town, I had an opportunity to meet Dr Mohammad Ismail Azad Fatehpuri and recorded a conversation with him on issues of history, culture and literature of Fatehpur. Sharing this conversation here with you. Kindly click this link. --- *Human rights defender. Facebook https://www.facebook.com/vbrawat , X @freetohumanity, Skype @vbrawat

Urgent need to study cause of large number of natural deaths in Gulf countries

By Venkatesh Nayak* According to data tabled in Parliament in April 2018, there are 87.76 lakh (8.77 million) Indians in six Gulf countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While replying to an Unstarred Question (#6091) raised in the Lok Sabha, the Union Minister of State for External Affairs said, during the first half of this financial year alone (between April-September 2018), blue-collared Indian workers in these countries had remitted USD 33.47 Billion back home. Not much is known about the human cost of such earnings which swell up the country’s forex reserves quietly. My recent RTI intervention and research of proceedings in Parliament has revealed that between 2012 and mid-2018 more than 24,570 Indian Workers died in these Gulf countries. This works out to an average of more than 10 deaths per day. For every US$ 1 Billion they remitted to India during the same period there were at least 117 deaths of Indian Workers in Gulf ...

N-power plant at Mithi Virdi: CRZ nod is arbitrary, without jurisdiction

By Krishnakant* A case-appeal has been filed against the order of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) and others granting CRZ clearance for establishment of intake and outfall facility for proposed 6000 MWe Nuclear Power Plant at Mithi Virdi, District Bhavnagar, Gujarat by Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) vide order in F 11-23 /2014-IA- III dated March 3, 2015. The case-appeal in the National Green Tribunal at Western Bench at Pune is filed by Shaktisinh Gohil, Sarpanch of Jasapara; Hajabhai Dihora of Mithi Virdi; Jagrutiben Gohil of Jasapara; Krishnakant and Rohit Prajapati activist of the Paryavaran Suraksha Samiti. The National Green Tribunal (NGT) has issued a notice to the MoEF&CC, Gujarat Pollution Control Board, Gujarat Coastal Zone Management Authority, Atomic Energy Regulatory Board and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and case is kept for hearing on August 20, 2015. Appeal No. 23 of 2015 (WZ) is filed, a...

Gujarat agate worker, who fought against bondage, died of silicosis, won compensation

Raju Parmar By Jagdish Patel* This is about an agate worker of Khambhat in Central Gujarat. Born in a Vankar family, Raju Parmar first visited our weekly OPD clinic in Shakarpur on March 4, 2009. Aged 45 then, he was assigned OPD No 199/03/2009. He was referred to the Cardiac Care Centre, Khambhat, to get chest X-ray free of charge. Accordingly, he got it done and submitted his report. At that time he was working in an agate crushing unit of one Kishan Bhil.

Budget for 2018-19: Ahmedabad authorities "regularly" under-spend allocation

By Mahender Jethmalani* The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation’s (AMC's) General Body (Municipal Board) recently passed the AMC’s annual budget estimates of Rs 6,990 crore for 2018-19. AMC’s revenue expenditure for the next financial year is Rs 3,500 crore and development budget (capital budget) is Rs 3,490 crore.

Licy Bharucha’s pilgrimage into the lives of India’s freedom fighters

By Moin Qazi* Book Review: “Oral History of Indian Freedom Movement”, by Dr Licy Bharucha; Pp240; Rs 300; Published by National Museum of Indian Freedom Movement The Congress has won political freedom, but it has yet to win economic freedom, social and moral freedom. These freedoms are harder than the political, if only because they are constructive, less exciting and not spectacular. — Mahatma Gandhi The opening quote of the book by Mahatma Gandhi sums up the true objective of India’s freedom struggle. It also in essence speaks for the multitudes of brave and courageous individuals who aspired to get themselves jailed for the cause of the country’s freedom. A jail term was a strong testimony and credential of patriotism for them. The book has been written by Dr Licy Bharucha, an academically trained political scientist and a scholar of peace studies and Gandhian studies, who was closely associated throughout her life with those who made the struggle for India’s independence the primar...

Warning bells for India: Tribal exploitation by powerful corporate interests may turn into international issue

By Ashok Shrimali* Warning bells are ringing for India. Even as news drops in from Odisha that Adivasi villages, one after another, are rejecting the top UK-based MNC Vedanta's plea for mining, a recent move by two senior scholars Felix Padel and Samarendra Das suggests the way tribals are being exploited in India by powerful international and national business interests may become an international issue. In fact, one has only to count days when things may be taken up at the United Nations level, with India being pushed to the corner. Padel, it may be recalled, is a major British authority on indigenous peoples across the world, with several scholarly books to his credit.

UP tribal woman human rights defender Sokalo released on bail

By A Representative After almost five months in jail, Adivasi human rights defender and forest worker Sokalo Gond has been finally released on bail.Despite being granted bail on October 4, technical and procedural issues kept Sokalo behind bars until November 1. The Citizens for Justice and Peace (CJP) and the All India Union of Forest Working People (AIUFWP), which are backing Sokalo, called it a "major victory." Sokalo's release follows the earlier releases of Kismatiya and Sukhdev Gond in September. "All three forest workers and human rights defenders were illegally incarcerated under false charges, in what is the State's way of punishing those who are active in their fight for the proper implementation of the Forest Rights Act (2006)", said a CJP statement.

Search This Blog