Chief minister of Andhra Pradesh has triggered widespread concern with his recent statement that families should have more children than at present. Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu has also said that each family should have sixteen children.
Such views of two chief minsters have shocked the discerning people in India and as a matter of fact, several people think that these are careless and thoughtless remarks. It is well recognized that India is now a over populated country with one of the highest population density amongst all countries in the world.
The views of the two chief ministers go completely against the national consensus on two child norm. It is extremely difficult to understand why such statements were made by these two chief ministers, who ought to know better.
India’s alarming population growth & likely scenario in future
The Indian population which was around 35.9 crore in 1950 have now surged to around 144 crore in 2024.
Population is likely to increase at not less than 0.8 % per annum, if the present trend were to continue , particularly since population is still increasing and also that average life span pf people is increasing and longevity is now around 65 years, which has much improved compared to earlier period.
Indian population is likely to touch more than 170 crore people by the year 2050. The Indian population level and population density has already reached an alarming level and the adverse impact is already evident.
In spite of impressive growth of Indian economy and progress in industrial, agricultural and services sector particularly during the last ten years, significant section of Indian population still remain below poverty line or just above poverty line. In other words, the economic growth is unable to catch up with the population growth.
With the population increasing, it is necessary to create adequate employment opportunities for people at different skill level.
Any view that in tune with the future population growth, generation of large number of jobs at different level and promotion of skill amongst the people as required by the level of population can be created is an Utopian expectation. This would be particularly so, since the emphasis in the various projects that contribute to economic growth, would be on greater automation, less manpower requirement and more so in the context of recent developments such as artificial intelligence . Future technological changes would result in less manpower requirement for various tasks. Such view amount to wishful thinking and certainly not based on ground realities in India. It is easily said than done.
Increasing level of population and inability to keep the people engaged by providing employment adequately is bound to cause social tension and unrest. It is said that the idle brain is the devil’s workshop.
So called demographic dividend
It is vaguely said that growing population would provide demographic dividend for India.
This statement is incorrect and would prove to be wrong , as demographic dividend can be availed only if jobs would be made available to the population at different skill level.
It is extremely difficult to get the possible demographic dividend as it is already evident now with the level of unemployment in the country.
The future trend in the densely populated India is likely to be that more and more people from India would be seeking jobs abroad and seek migration to other advanced countries. They would be forced to do so , due to lack of job opportunities in India with the steady growth in Indian population level and population density.
It is quite likely that in the coming years , several advanced countries would feel concerned about the growing entry of migrants from India , which may disturb the demographic balance in the countries and probably create social issues and tension. Such migrants entering the advanced countries would become unwelcome people.
India’s population carrying capacity: Factors to be considered
· Level of economic growth already achieved and growth likely to be achieved in the coming years.
· Land size of India.
· Availability of natural resources
· Likely water scarcity.
· Ability to create jobs in large number to meet the need of increasing population.
· Unsustainable urban migration due to lack of job opportunities
· Waste generation and consequent environmental issues.
India has to strive to reduce the population density by bringing down the population level in a gradual and painless manner over the next few years.
Taking a holistic view, it can be said that the optimum population for India is around one hundred crore people.
If and when India were to achieve this level of one hundred crore population, India would certainly emerge as one of the most prosperous countries in the world.
Need for strong compaign
In the last several years, the campaign to check population growth has not been conspicuous and not visibly seen.
On the other hand, the country has been brain washed with the view that population growth is unlikely to be a threat, as birth rate is tapering down and fertility rate in several states in India have already reached replacement level of 2.1 and economic growth would be sustained.
Common man has not been told in clear terms about the grave issues that would arise due to further increase in Indian population, which may increase by another 40 crore in the coming years before stabilizing. This would be an unbearable burden on the nation.
Empowerment of women and creation of awareness amongst women about the need for population control is the primary requisite. This can be done only by vigorous public campaign.
Need for one child policy for some period
India has to frame one child policy per family, which China implemented successfully, in spite of the fact that China’s land area is much larger than that of India and China’s density of population is lower than that of India. China has brought down the population growth level within acceptable limits by one child policy and is now stabilizing the population by appropriate measures.
Of course, China adopted dictatorial methods, which India cannot do in view of India’s highly desirable democratic structure. The only way out is that one child policy must be implemented by persuasion and by disincentivising more than one child family.
Fix population sustainability index
Since the extent of population growth is different in different states, population sustainability index has to be fixed for each state. This policy should fix a specific population target for each state, which is necessary for the nation at this juncture.
Any man marrying more than one woman should be banned by law, to curtail the population increase and to protect the dignity of women.
Central and state governments should realise that India has not time to lose and India’s future stability can be ensured only by achieving affordable population level, which could be several crores less than the present level.
---
*Trustee, Nandini Voice for The Deprived, Chennai
Comments