The violent uprising in Bangladesh, organized by a faction of students with allegiance to Islamic ideology and supported by certain Islamic extremists, has created a volatile situation. Reports indicate that even the Bangladesh Army Chief endorsed these events, leaving the then Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, with no alternative but to flee the country.
In recent years, similar uprisings have occurred in various countries. In most cases, such movements resulted in chaos and confusion, causing a sharp decline in the countries’ fortunes. An exception is Sri Lanka, where stability was restored after an uprising, and a democratically elected government eventually assumed office. The question now is whether Bangladesh will follow Sri Lanka’s path to recovery or spiral into prolonged instability like other nations.
When uprisings are orchestrated by small groups that adopt violent methods and disregard the rule of law, the silent majority often remains as distant observers—concerned but largely inactive.
In Bangladesh, the organizers of this uprising do not appear to adhere to any specific economic philosophy or development strategy. With the Prime Minister ousted and no clear leader emerging, governance seems to have been handed to Mohammad Yunus. He is perceived as someone who might accommodate the demands of those behind the uprising.
In the months following this unrest, Bangladesh’s economy has suffered significantly. The economic momentum built under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership over the past several years seems to have been lost. Prominent development projects, including the partly completed nuclear plant in collaboration with Russia, are being questioned. Similarly, the long-term power supply arrangement with India’s Adani Group is reportedly being reconsidered, despite a lack of logical reasoning for these decisions.
Currently, the rhetoric in Bangladesh is dominated by hostility toward minority communities, destruction of places of worship, and inflammatory statements against India.
There are clear signs that Bangladesh is aligning itself more closely with Pakistan, which has long declared its animosity toward India. With Islamic extremists increasingly influencing governance, Bangladesh seems poised to abandon its secular credentials and declare itself an Islamic state, akin to Pakistan.
The deteriorating economic situation, exacerbated by policy confusion and dwindling foreign exchange reserves, makes Bangladesh vulnerable to China’s economic corridor projects. Such initiatives could push Bangladesh into a deep debt trap, similar to Pakistan’s current predicament.
Those now running the Bangladesh government are not representative of the people. Instead, the country is under the control of a coterie whose primary agenda appears to be transforming Bangladesh into a full-fledged Islamic state.
India, so far, has responded with caution to the unfolding crisis. Despite constant anti-India rhetoric from Bangladesh, India has refrained from escalating tensions. However, the situation could worsen with Bangladesh’s demand for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition to face trial—a move India is likely to reject. If this happens, relations between the two countries could deteriorate further.
The current leadership in Bangladesh seems unable to recognize the importance of maintaining good relations with India, a neighboring country. Despite the hostile rhetoric, Bangladesh recently requested India to supply rice, underscoring the necessity of bilateral cooperation.
With no elections anticipated for at least 12 months and the coterie government continuing, the future of Bangladesh remains uncertain. While the silent majority in Bangladesh is aware of the precarious state of the nation, they appear powerless to effect change.
The question remains: where will Bangladesh go from here?
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*Trustee, Nandini Voice For The Deprived, Chennai
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