Is it time to celebrate India's 'improved' sex ratio? Reasons to question NFHS data

By Aditi Chaudhary*
The recently published National Family Health Survey (NFHS) factsheet brought cheers amongst the public and the government. With Child Sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males in the age group 0 - 6 years) and overall sex ratio (the total number of females per 1000 males), both showing an improvement, NFHS-5 (2019-21) got applauded by all around.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the sex ratio to be 952 females per thousand males. An ideal scenario of sex ratio tends to be 1:1 owing to various factors such as natural selection at birth and others. The child sex ratio increased from 919 in NFHS-4 (2015-16) to 929 females per 1000 males in NFHS-5 (2019-21). Further, there is also an improvement in the Sex ratio of the total population from 991 females to 1020 females per 1000 males.
It is unprecedented and commendable for India to overcome all the biases and discrimination that women face and acquire a healthy sex ratio. The numerical excess of women over men while facing social evils like female foeticide, female infanticide and dowry deaths is welcome. This increase is the paradigm shift that the government and stakeholders have strived for.
However, the sex ratio mentioned by NFHS-5 cannot be truly considered to show the actual change. The 2011 Census had reported the sex ratio to be 940 females per 1000 males, and NFHS-5 shows 1020 females per 1,000 males.
Some reasons to question the phenomenal increase in sex ratio in the last decade are as follows:
First of all, one should understand the national-level survey's definition to calculate the sex ratio. It uses modified de facto enumeration It enumerates people based on “where they spent the last night prior to the day of enumeration”.
Here, we cannot deny the possibility of rural men and women being away from their homes on the last night of the enumeration. Men not present at the time of the survey, presumably for work or other reasons, could have also led to inflation of the sex ratio.
Then, NFHS is a well-designed, comprehensive survey that calculates sample size using probability proportion to size. However, inevitable systematic errors and disturbances during data collection due to the pandemic could have also fuelled the ratio. More females also appeared because the survey was conducted around the COVID-19 period and in two phases (pre-pandemic and second wave).

Also, one cannot rule out more males getting infected and succumbing to COVID-19. Men tend to migrate and go out more than women for work, and hence, the chances of getting infected increase. A considerable number of men also lost their lives while returning to their native place during the first phase of the pandemic.
Lastly, NFHS-5 shows that the child sex ratio is still low in Goa 838, Himachal Pradesh 875 and and Telangana 894. Alternatively, some states and UTs have also shown a decline in overall sex ratio from NFHS-4 to 5 viz Andaman and Nicobar, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Chhattisgarh and Chandigarh.
The map shows States with lower overall sex ratios are Arunachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. This univocal pattern compels us to conclude that while there has been a specific increase, the magnitude nevertheless is highly questionable.
Hence, considering the various possibilities, there is still time and a lot to be done before settling and celebrating the increase in numbers. The accurate picture can only be shown by the upcoming Census of 2022 because undoubtedly, it is the biggest, most dependable, and complete population enumeration for any country.
---
*Senior Doctoral Fellow, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai

Comments

Anonymous said…

Very thoughtful and well-written article.
However, unsure of the reliability of the news sources, I came across a few where it was stated that the Census is India, 2021 is cancelled and the next census in India would be conducted in 2031. Do you think, we may not have access to a complete data of the Indian demography for another 10-12 years?

January 25, 2022

Neha Nipunika said…

Very Well written Aditi..

January 26, 2022

Gujarat Information Commission issues warning against misinterpretation of RTI orders

By A Representative The Gujarat Information Commission (GIC) has issued a press note clarifying that its orders limiting the number of Right to Information (RTI) applications for certain individuals apply only to those specific applicants. The GIC has warned that it will take disciplinary action against any public officials who misinterpret these orders to deny information to other citizens. The press note, signed by GIC Secretary Jaideep Dwivedi, states that the Right to Information Act, 2005, is a powerful tool for promoting transparency and accountability in public administration. However, the commission has observed that some applicants are misusing the act by filing an excessive number of applications, which disproportionately consumes the time and resources of Public Information Officers (PIOs), First Appellate Authorities (FAAs), and the commission itself. This misuse can cause delays for genuine applicants seeking justice. In response to this issue, and in acc...

Targeted eviction of Bengali-speaking Muslims across Assam districts alleged

By A Representative A delegation led by prominent academic and civil rights leader Sandeep Pandey visited three districts in Assam—Goalpara, Dhubri, and Lakhimpur—between 2 and 4 September 2025 to meet families affected by recent demolitions and evictions. The delegation reported widespread displacement of Bengali-speaking Muslim communities, many of whom possess valid citizenship documents including Aadhaar, voter ID, ration cards, PAN cards, and NRC certification.

'Govts must walk the talk on gender equality, right to health, human rights to deliver SDGs by 2030'

By A Representative With just 64 months left to deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), global health and rights advocates have called upon governments to honour their commitments on gender equality and the human right to health. Speaking ahead of the 80th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), experts warned that rising anti-rights and anti-gender pushes are threatening hard-won progress on SDG-3 (health and wellbeing) and SDG-5 (gender equality).

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor* This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

Is U.S. fast losing its financial and technological edge under Trump’s second tenure?

By Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra* The United States, along with its Western European allies, once promoted globalization as a democratic force that would deliver shared prosperity and balanced growth. That promise has unraveled. Globalization, instead of building an even world, has produced one defined by inequality, asymmetry of power, and new vulnerabilities. For decades, Washington successfully turned this system to its advantage. Today, however, under Trump’s second administration, America is attempting to exploit the weaknesses of others without acknowledging how exposed it has become itself.

Gandhiji quoted as saying his anti-untouchability view has little space for inter-dining with "lower" castes

By A Representative A senior activist close to Narmada Bachao Andolan (NBA) leader Medha Patkar has defended top Booker prize winning novelist Arundhati Roy’s controversial utterance on Gandhiji that “his doctrine of nonviolence was based on an acceptance of the most brutal social hierarchy the world has ever known, the caste system.” Surprised at the police seeking video footage and transcript of Roy’s Mahatma Ayyankali memorial lecture at the Kerala University on July 17, Nandini K Oza in a recent blog quotes from available sources to “prove” that Gandhiji indeed believed in “removal of untouchability within the caste system.”

'MGNREGA crisis deepening': NSM demands fair wages and end to digital exclusions

By A Representative The NREGA Sangharsh Morcha (NSM), a coalition of independent unions of MGNREGA workers, has warned that the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) is facing a “severe crisis” due to persistent neglect and restrictive measures imposed by the Union Government.

On Teachers’ Day, remembering Mother Teresa as the teacher of compassion

By Fr. Cedric Prakash SJ It is Teachers’ Day once again! Significantly, the day also marks the Feast of St. Teresa of Calcutta (still lovingly called Mother Teresa). In 2012, the United Nations, as a fitting tribute to her, declared this day the International Day of Charity. A day pregnant with meaning—one that we must celebrate as meaningfully as possible.

Gujarat minority rights group seeks suspension of Botad police officials for brutal assault on minor

By A Representative A human rights group, the Minority Coordination Committee (MCC) Gujarat, has written to the Director General of Police (DGP), Gandhinagar, demanding the immediate suspension and criminal action against police personnel of Botad police station for allegedly brutally assaulting a minor boy from the Muslim community.

Counterview

Search This Blog