Advantage BJP in UP as shrill Modi campaign now attempts to create Hindu-Muslim divide: Top scribe

By A Representative
Virtually backing the banned exit polls carried out by the Hindi daily Dainik Jagran's online site as also other surveys, top scribe Rajdeep Sardesai has predicted in a blog, written by him at the end of the three rounds of polling for UP state assembly, it's “advantage BJP”, with Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance being “still in the hunt.”
Sardesai's prediction is based, to quote him, “The BJP talks of sabka saath sabka vikas in Delhi but on the ground the campaign is getting more shrill and polarised in an attempt to create a Hindu-Muslim divide.”
Pointing out that “there has been a distinct and disturbing communal edge to the BJP campaign, especially in western UP”, Sardesai says, “The key now lies in eastern UP where the BJP will look to achieve further consolidation of its Hindu, non Yadav OBC/EBC, upper caste alliance to pull firmly ahead.”
In a series of tweets over the last two days, Sardesai has said, the two chief opponents of the BJP, SP-Congress alliance and Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are preying “on fears of a Muslim 'vote bank'”, creating “conditions for a Hindu backlash.”
He has also tweeted, “Wither 'secular' politics? Muslims demonised by BJP, 'used' by SP-Congress and Mayawati!”.
Commenting on the latest controversial comment by Prime Minister Narendra Modi demanding equality of the Muslim graveyard and the Hindu cremation ground in village, he tweets, “BJP hasn't given a single Muslim a ticket: How do you ensure 'sabka saath sabka vikas' without any political representation?”
A top right-wing site has, meanwhile, has reported a survey by Times Now-VMR, saying that BJP will win “at least 202 out of the 403 total seats” in the UP assembly elections, winning 34% of the vote share. The SP-Congress alliance, “formed to prevent BJP from coming to power in the state, will manage to win only 147 seats” attracting a “little over 31 per cent vote share”, it adds.
After visiting UP on several occasions, Sardesai says, “The BJP remains in pole position at the half way mark. In almost every region, the BJP is in the race and the party has a wider social coalition, giving it a slight edge over its rivals who have strong pockets of influence.”
No doubt, he says, “There is no Modi wave like 2014 this time, but the prime minister is still the most popular leader across caste and communities (except Muslims). The failure though to build a strong, credible local leadership remains an Achilles heel. The PM's appeal is in fact well above the party.”
Sardesai believes, “The BJP's core vote among upper castes and traders in urban pockets is intact despite demonetisation which is not a decisive issue on the ground. It's incremental 'plus' vote is coming from the extremely backward castes... who are numerically strong. It's the non-Yadav OBC who is emerging as the BJP's key vote bank. ”
As for SP's Akhilesh Yadav, says Sardesai, he is “emerging as a pan-UP leader in his own right”, though adding, “There is little anger against him but his MLAs do face anti incumbency. Akhilesh is particularly popular among youth who see him as a face of the future. Law and order is a major concern in urban areas, but Akhilesh is rated strongly as a development oriented leader.”
No doubt, he says, the SP-Congress combine has “unified the Muslim vote considerably and there is little division in the Muslim vote between the SP and the BSP that the BJP is hoping for. The alliance today is essentially an MY (Muslim Yadav) consolidation of votes but it is struggling to get incremental votes.”
However, he regrets, the Congress, which is a "weak link" in the alliance, "is unable to easily transfer its traditional upper caste votes to the SP candidates in the alliance.”
Coming to Mayawati, says Sardesai, she is “ struggling to make an impact, adding, “Her Jatav vote is intact, but she is unable to attract the 'plus' vote that was crucial to her success in the past, especially in 2007. Even the Muslim vote has gone to her only in limited areas where the BSP candidate was very strong.”

Comments

Grueling summer ahead: Cuttack’s alarming health trends and what they mean for Odisha

By Sudhansu R Das The preparation to face the summer should begin early in Odisha. People in the state endure long, grueling summer months starting from mid-February and extending until the end of October. This prolonged heat adversely affects productivity, causes deaths and diseases, and impacts agriculture, tourism and the unorganized sector. The social, economic and cultural life of the state remains severely disrupted during the peak heat months.

Stronger India–Russia partnership highlights a missed energy breakthrough

By N.S. Venkataraman* The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India was widely publicized across several countries and has attracted significant global attention. The warmth with which Mr. Putin was received by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was particularly noted, prompting policy planners worldwide to examine the implications of this cordial relationship for the global economy and political climate. India–Russia relations have stood on a strong foundation for decades and have consistently withstood geopolitical shifts. This is in marked contrast to India’s ties with the United States, which have experienced fluctuations under different U.S. administrations.

From natural farming to fair prices: Young entrepreneurs show a new path

By Bharat Dogra There have been frequent debates on agro-business companies not showing adequate concern for the livelihoods of small farmers. Farmers’ unions have often protested—generally with good reason—that while they do not receive fair returns despite high risks and hard work, corporate interests that merely process the crops produced by farmers earn disproportionately high profits. Hence, there is a growing demand for alternative models of agro-business development that demonstrate genuine commitment to protecting farmer livelihoods.

The Vande Mataram debate and the politics of manufactured controversy

By Vidya Bhushan Rawat* The recent Vande Mataram debate in Parliament was never meant to foster genuine dialogue. Each political party spoke past the other, addressing its own constituency, ensuring that clips went viral rather than contributing to meaningful deliberation. The objective was clear: to construct a Hindutva narrative ahead of the Bengal elections. Predictably, the Lok Sabha will likely expunge the opposition’s “controversial” remarks while retaining blatant inaccuracies voiced by ministers and ruling-party members. The BJP has mastered the art of inserting distortions into parliamentary records to provide them with a veneer of historical legitimacy.

A comrade in culture and controversy: Yao Wenyuan’s revolutionary legacy

By Harsh Thakor* This year marks two important anniversaries in Chinese revolutionary history—the 20th death anniversary of Yao Wenyuan, and the 50th anniversary of his seminal essay "On the Social Basis of the Lin Biao Anti-Party Clique". These milestones invite reflection on the man whose pen ignited the first sparks of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution and whose sharp ideological interventions left an indelible imprint on the political and cultural landscape of socialist China.

The cost of being Indian: How inequality and market logic redefine rights

By Vikas Gupta We, the people of India, are engaged in a daily tryst—read: struggle—for basic human rights. For the seemingly well-to-do, the wish list includes constant water supply, clean air, safe roads, punctual public transportation, and crime-free neighbourhoods. For those further down the ladder, the struggle is starker: food that fills the stomach, water that doesn’t sicken, medicines that don’t kill, houses that don’t flood, habitats at safe distances from polluted streams or garbage piles, and exploitation-free environments in the public institutions they are compelled to navigate.

Why India must urgently strengthen its policies for an ageing population

By Bharat Dogra A quiet but far-reaching demographic transformation is reshaping much of the world. As life expectancy rises and birth rates fall, societies are witnessing a rapid increase in the proportion of older people. This shift has profound implications for public policy, and the need to strengthen frameworks for healthy and secure ageing has never been more urgent. India is among the countries where these pressures will intensify most sharply in the coming decades.

Thota Sitaramaiah: An internal pillar of an underground organisation

By Harsh Thakor* Thota Sitaramaiah was regarded within his circles as an example of the many individuals whose work in various underground movements remained largely unknown to the wider public. While some leaders become visible through organisational roles or media attention, many others contribute quietly, without public recognition. Sitaramaiah was considered one such figure. He passed away on December 8, 2025, at the age of 65.

Proposals for Babri Masjid, Ram Temple spark fears of polarisation before West Bengal polls

By A Representative A political debate has emerged in West Bengal following recent announcements about plans for new religious structures in Murshidabad district, including a proposed mosque to be named Babri Masjid and a separate announcement by a BJP leader regarding the construction of a Ram temple in another location within Behrampur.

Search This Blog