New data with Central Statistical Organisation suggest, Gujarat growth rate worse than 16 major states

Growth rate in 2012-13 at current prices. Source: CSO

New revised data handed over to the Central Statistical Organization (CSO), Government of India, by all state governments, and in possession of Counterview, suggest that Gujarat’s growth rate for 2012-13 was 12.69 per cent (at current prices, without deducting inflation) as against 9.52 per cent, as earlier reported on the basis of Planning Commission data. Even then, the data suggest that Gujarat’s performance was worse than as many as 16 out of 20 major Indian states, and better than just three states -- Assam (12.56 per cent), Punjab (11.85 per cent), and Tamil Nadu (11.90 per cent). The Gujarat government has not released its data yet.
The states which had a better growth rate than Gujarat are Andhra Pradesh (13.86 per cent), Bihar (26.96 per cent), Chhattisgarh (15.62 per cent), Haryana (14.33 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (13.48 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (14.93 per cent), Jharkhand (14.58 per cent), Karnataka (14.30 per cent), Kerala (13.46 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (19.41 per cent), Maharashtra (14.43 per cent), Odisha (19.05 per cent), Rajasthan (13.83 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (13.24 per cent), Uttarakhand (16.68 per cent), and West Bengal (15.23 per cent).”
The only “consolation” for Gujarat is that it is not the “worst” – and has "managed to defeat” three major states in the race for growth rate, one of whom is a poor state, Assam, and the other two are Punjab and Tamil Nadu. Yet, if the data handed over to the CSO are any indication, even after following this “revision” by most states, the Gujarat government has refused to hand over the advanced estimate (AE) for 2013-14, though large number of states have already done it. Last year, the AE for 2012-13 was released in February 2013. “Only a top ex-official of state planning department, known for his skills in handling data, should know why”, a senior official told Counterview.
Insiders say, instead of revising data upwards, which most states have done, Gujarat officials were to forced to “manipulate” its data downwards for two years (2010-11 and 2011-12) in order to show that Gujarat’s growth rate in 2012-13 was as not the worst in India, but was a better “somewhat better.” A senior official, requesting anonymity, told Counteview, Gujarat’s “manipulation happened in February 2014”, after it was “internally found” that the growth rate worked out by the state planning department suggested a mere 9.52 per cent rise at current prices, lowest in India.
The exercise in “adjusting” data continued for quite some. A former additional chief secretary, Government of Gujarat, known for his economic skills, allegedly supervised the exercise. The national Planning Commission had been asking for current price data from Gujarat officials for 2012-13 data, but it refused to part with it for entire last year. The result was, while all states handed over 2012-13 data, found reflected in August 2013 Planning Commission documents, Gujarat government did not.
The data Gujarat government, handed over to the CSO, which have still not been reflected in the Planning Commission site, suggest how Gujarat revised downwards growth rates for 2010-11 and 2011-12 to give an “even picture of balanced growth" for the past three years. “The result is that, now there are two set of data – one on the Planning Commission website, and another, those that have been handed over to the CSO, but not reflected on the official Gujarat government website, as still the growth rate would be worse than most states, problematic in a poll year”, this official said.
The Planning Commission-approved data suggest that Gujarat’s growth rate for 2010-11 was Rs 530,430 crore, and for 2011-12 Rs 611,767 crore. The revised data “handed over” to the CSO were Rs 521,519 crore and Rs 594,563 crore respectively. The result was, while the Planning Commission data suggested a growth rate of 22.99 per cent in 2010-11 and 15.33 per cent in 2011-12, following the new update, the growth rate for both the years went down to 20.93 per cent and 14.01 per cent, which wasn’t bad enough to show that Gujarat grew relatively better three years and better than a few states.
“The manipulation has helped increase the growth rate for 2012-13 from 9.52 per cent to 12.69 per cent”, the official said, adding, “There is a failure to understand in many quarters that if the 2012-13 data (Rs 670,017 crore, released by state finance minister Nitin Patel during his budget speech in Gujarat state assembly) are calculated against the Planning Commission data for 2011-12 (Rs 597,573), the growth rate would be 9.52 per cent. But if this is calculated against the data handed over to the CSO, the growth rate for 2012-13 would be 12.69 per cent”, the official said.

Comments

Ahmedabad's civic chaos: Drainage woes, waterlogging, and the illusion of Olympic dreams

In response to my blog on overflowing gutter lines at several spots in Ahmedabad's Vejalpur, a heavily populated area, a close acquaintance informed me that it's not just the middle-class housing societies that are affected by the nuisance. Preeti Das, who lives in a posh locality in what is fashionably called the SoBo area, tells me, "Things are worse in our society, Applewood."

RP Gupta a scapegoat to help Govt of India manage fallout of Adani case in US court?

RP Gupta, a retired 1987-batch IAS officer from the Gujarat cadre, has found himself at the center of a growing controversy. During my tenure as the Times of India correspondent in Gandhinagar (1997–2012), I often interacted with him. He struck me as a straightforward officer, though I never quite understood why he was never appointed to what are supposed to be top-tier departments like industries, energy and petrochemicals, finance, or revenue.

PharmEasy: The only online medical store which revises prices upwards after confirming the order

For senior citizens — especially those without a family support system — ordering medicines online can be a great relief. Shruti and I have been doing this for the last couple of years, and with considerable success. We upload a prescription, receive a verification call from a doctor, and within two or three days, the medicines are delivered to our doorstep.

Powering pollution, heating homes: Why are Delhi residents opposing incineration-based waste management

While going through the 50-odd-page report Burning Waste, Warming Cities? Waste-to-Energy (WTE) Incineration and Urban Heat in Delhi , authored by Chythenyen Devika Kulasekaran of the well-known advocacy group Centre for Financial Accountability, I came across a reference to Sukhdev Vihar — a place where I lived for almost a decade before moving to Moscow in 1986 as the foreign correspondent of the daily Patriot and weekly Link .

Environmental report raises alarm: Sabarmati one of four rivers with nonylphenol contamination

A new report by Toxics Link , an Indian environmental research and advocacy organisation based in New Delhi, in collaboration with the Environmental Defense Fund , a global non-profit headquartered in New York, has raised the alarm that Sabarmati is one of five rivers across India found to contain unacceptable levels of nonylphenol (NP), a chemical linked to "exposure to carcinogenic outcomes, including prostate cancer in men and breast cancer in women."

Dalit rights and political tensions: Why is Mevani at odds with Congress leadership?

While I have known Jignesh Mevani, one of the dozen-odd Congress MLAs from Gujarat, ever since my Gandhinagar days—when he was a young activist aligned with well-known human rights lawyer Mukul Sinha’s organisation, Jan Sangharsh Manch—he became famous following the July 2016 Una Dalit atrocity, in which seven members of a family were brutally assaulted by self-proclaimed cow vigilantes while skinning a dead cow, a traditional occupation among Dalits.

Tracking a lost link: Soviet-era legacy of Gujarati translator Atul Sawani

The other day, I received a message from a well-known activist, Raju Dipti, who runs an NGO called Jeevan Teerth in Koba village, near Gujarat’s capital, Gandhinagar. He was seeking the contact information of Atul Sawani, a translator of Russian books—mainly political and economic—into Gujarati for Progress Publishers during the Soviet era. He wanted to collect and hand over scanned soft copies, or if possible, hard copies, of Soviet books translated into Gujarati to Arvind Gupta, who currently lives in Pune and is undertaking the herculean task of collecting and making public soft copies of Soviet books that are no longer available in the market, both in English and Indian languages.

Boeing 787 under scrutiny again after Ahmedabad crash: Whistleblower warnings resurface

A heart-wrenching tragedy has taken place in Ahmedabad. As widely reported, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner plane crashed shortly after taking off from the city’s airport, currently operated by India’s top tycoon, Gautam Adani. The aircraft was carrying 230 passengers and 12 crew members. As expected, the crash has led to an outpouring of grief across the country. At the same time, there have been demands for the resignation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Civil Aviation Minister Venkaiah Naidu. The most striking comment came from BJP MP Subramanian Swamy, who stated : "When a train derailed in the 1950s, Lal Bahadur Shastri resigned. On the same morality, I demand PM Modi, HM Amit Shah, and Civil Aviation Minister Naidu resign so that a free and fair inquiry can be held. All that Modi and his associates have been doing so far is gallivanting, which must stop." Amidst widespread mourning, some fringe elements sought to communalize the tragedy. One post ...

Revisiting Gijubhai: Pioneer of child-centric education and the caste debate

It was Krishna Kumar, the well-known educationist, who I believe first introduced me to the name — Gijubhai Badheka (1885–1939). Hailing from Bhavnagar, known as the cultural capital of the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, Gijubhai, Kumar told me during my student days, made significant contributions to the field of pedagogy — something that hasn't received much attention from India's education mandarins. At that time, Kumar was my tutorial teacher at Kirorimal College, Delhi University.

Search This Blog