In the context of ongoing global debates surrounding foreign interference, it is crucial to seek clarity on what exactly constitutes a Foreign Covert Regime Change Operation (FCRCO). Historically, powerful empires have frequently attempted to topple weaker neighboring regimes that defied their dictates or failed to meet their strategic requirements. Today, however, technological and geopolitical advancements allow the world’s most powerful nations to execute these operations across the globe. While any major power can attempt a covert regime change, the practice is most prominently associated with the United States—ironically, even as the U.S. frequently accuses rivals like Russia of interfering in its own elections.
To understand the U.S. establishment's official perception of this phenomenon, one must look at a foundational document. National Security Council Directive 10/2, issued in May 1948, explicitly stated that overt U.S. foreign activities must be "supplemented by covert operations… so planned and executed that any U.S. government responsibility for them is not evident to unauthorized persons." The directive authorized a wide array of clandestine actions, including:
"Covert activities related to propaganda; economic warfare; preventative direct actions, including sabotage, anti-sabotage, demolition, and evacuation measures; subversion against hostile states, including assistance to underground resistance movements, guerillas, and refugee liberation groups, and support of indigenous anti-communist elements in threatened countries of the free world."
This historical mandate aligns perfectly with modern academic definitions. In her widely discussed book "Covert Regime Change", scholar Lindsey A. O’Rourke defines the practice as "an operation to replace the political leadership of another state where the intervening state does not acknowledge its role publicly." She notes that these actions encompass successful and failed attempts to assassinate foreign leaders, sponsor coups, influence democratic elections, incite popular revolutions, and arm dissident groups.
In recent years, the tactic of "inciting popular revolutions" or utilizing "lawfare" has been heavily emphasized. We saw this in the successful efforts to derail the political ascent of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Fierce, widely publicized movements were incited based on corruption charges that the Supreme Court later overturned as false. However, by the time the truth emerged, the veteran leader had suffered long imprisonment (2018-2019), and Brazil’s political stability had been severely disrupted. A similar playbook was evident in the recent ouster of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, where instigating endless protests served as the primary model to achieve regime change.
It is vital to distinguish these covert operations from overt ones. Overt foreign regime change can take the form of full-blown military invasions or limited kinetic strikes and incursions—such as historical U.S. interventions in Iran, or the failed 2020 mercenary incursion in Venezuela that briefly attempted to capture its president. However, it is crucial to realize that overt military actions are often preceded, accompanied, or paved by covert operations, blurring the lines between the two.
Furthermore, FCRCOs include both successful and failed attempts. In reality, failed attempts likely outnumber successful ones due to the sheer complexity of foreign interference. Yet, the most critical takeaway is this: regardless of whether an FCRCO succeeds or fails from the instigator's perspective, the human cost for the targeted country is almost always tragic.
Conversely, the habitual instigator also suffers. These operations inflict deep harm on the aggressor’s global standing, resulting in a widespread loss of trust and ethical credibility, which eventually boomerangs into adverse domestic consequences. Viewed broadly, no one truly benefits from covert regime change; everyone loses. The only rational policy option is to entirely discard the practice.
Because FCRCOs are, by definition, highly secretive, perpetrators take great care to obscure their identities and operational linkages. Therefore, great caution must be exercised within targeted nations to mitigate these harmful impacts. Citizens must remain vigilant, informed, and alert to the invisible hands attempting to steer their nation's destiny.
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Bharat Dogra is the Honorary Convener of the Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Man over Machine, and A Day in 2071. His website is bharatdogra.in and his YouTube channel is Bharat Dogra | Save Earth Campaign
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