Beyond economic growth: The strain of India’s expanding population

By N.S. Venkataraman* 

When India became independent in 1947, its population stood at around 360 million, with a density of 117 persons per square kilometre. Since then, the numbers have risen steadily. Alarmed by this growth, experts once warned of a “population explosion” that could trigger severe socio-economic challenges. In response, governments launched campaigns such as “Next child not now, and no child after two.” While these slogans caught public attention, the population continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace.  

The emergency period of 1975–77 marked a turning point. Coercive sterilisation measures during that time made population control deeply unpopular. Since then, successive governments have largely abandoned the subject. Over the last decade, under Prime Minister Modi, population control has barely figured in policy discussions. Today, India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, with a density of 435 per square kilometre—among the highest globally.  

Yet, a counter-narrative has emerged. Advocates of population growth argue that India’s rise to the world’s fourth-largest economy demonstrates that increasing numbers have not hindered progress. They describe population as “demographic strength,” pointing to declining fertility rates in states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and warning against measures that could push fertility below replacement levels. They dismiss fears of joblessness as exaggerated, citing technological innovation and expanding sectors that can absorb labour. They also highlight the struggles of countries like Japan, Russia, and China, where declining populations have created economic and social imbalances.  

This optimism, however, overlooks critical realities. India’s per capita income remains far below that of developed nations—just $2,396 compared to $59,195 in the United States, $33,000 in Japan, and $13,121 in China. Economic growth has not translated into proportionate gains for individuals, largely because of the sheer size of the population. Rising numbers dilute progress, keeping living standards low.  

Unchecked growth also risks intensifying unemployment, especially as automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence reduce demand for human labour. Even with declining fertility rates, longevity ensures continued expansion, with projections of 1.6 billion people by 2050. Such density will strain resources, fuel migration pressures, and create ecological imbalances. A country with vast numbers but low per capita income inevitably becomes a burden not only on itself but also on the global community.  

India must therefore adopt a clear population strategy. With land area fixed, rising density will worsen congestion, strain healthcare, and heighten underemployment. Public safety risks, already evident in stampedes at religious gatherings and stadiums, will multiply. To avoid unmanageable crises, India should aim to reduce density to around 300 persons per square kilometre through careful planning and sustained population management.  

India’s natural resources could make it as prosperous as any developed nation. But this potential will remain unrealised unless population levels are brought to a sustainable comfort zone. Without such recalibration, the promise of growth will continue to be undermined by the weight of numbers.

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*Trustee, Nandini Voice for the Deprived