By NS Venkataraman*
In the year 2024, India has “achieved” the status of being the most populated country in the world, with India’s population constituting 17.76% of the global population. India’s population is still increasing and some experts are of the view that India’s population may well touch 2000 million by the year 2050, from the present population of around 1440 million.
India’s population in the year 1950 was 359 million. It increased to around 1440 million in January, 2024. India’s population in the year January 2024 increased by 13 million people over the same period in the year 2023.
Some people argue that this situation may not be alarming, since India gains demographic advantages but more discerning observers are of the view that this could be a demographic drag, that would pose serious economic and social challenges for India that may even lead to destabilize the society to some extent.
While India’s population density is 438.58 people per sq km with land area of 3,287,263 sq km, the US population is 340 million in land area of 9,372,610 sq km with population density of 34.7 people per square kilometer. Some people are of the view that if only India have half the population that it now has, India may have nearly matched USA in economic and industrial growth profile.
While one cannot be too sure about this view since there are so many other factors influencing the growth profile of any country, there is no doubt that growth of Indian population level has nullified the positive effects of several economic and industrial progress that India has achieved in the last 75 years after independence.
Of course, India’s agricultural and industrial production have significantly increased that has ensured that there would not be any food scarcity in the country. At the same time, around 15% of Indian population still lives below poverty line and around 40% of Indian population live only at marginally above the poverty line.
India’s concern
When the country becomes so much over populated, it has become impossible to generate adequate employment opportunity, resulting in joblessness and under employment. It is a well known saying that an idle brain is a devil’s workshop.
The unemployment level would inevitably lead to social restlessness that would be caused by unequal distribution of income and opportunities and denial of rights to people to engage themselves profitably. It is also well known that work provide meaning for life of people.
During the last ten years of governance in India under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi there has been considerable progress in infrastructure and industrial production.
But, this has not led to job opportunities which are required by millions of people in India. In other words, growth has taken place with the growth profile unable to contribute to employment generation in very large scale.
In the coming years, with technology developments such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots making rapid advances, the manpower requirement for conducting work are likely to reduce drastically, as automation and robotics with technology inputs by artificial intelligence schemes are necessary to improve efficiency in work and output at globally competitive standards.
People going abroad for jobs is not so much from India, but may reach alarming levels in the coming years because of joblessness
Huge population also lead to emission issues that cause global warming. With billions of humans exhaling carbon dioxide with every breath, it really starts to add up to global emission. In one day, the average person breathes out around 500 litres of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide which amounts to around 1 kg in mass.
With population increase remaining unchecked, India will be a significant contributor to the global emission of carbon dioxide due to huge population. In this context, it is strange that India has offered zero emission level by the year 2070, especially in the use of fossil fuels and methane emission from livestock but has not considered the emission of carbon dioxide by humans in India, which may reach size of 2000 million people by the year 2050.
Why global concern
While economic growth and industrial growth are being targeted by Indian government, it is finding it impossible to provide employment opportunities at the scale required. In such circumstances, it is inevitable that unemployed or even Indians with low skill would try to migrate to other developed countries with low population density.
This will create demographic disturbance in these countries and India would be accused as one of the countries causing such migration influx and creating problems in other countries.
Such situation is already happening in European countries, USA and Canada. Though at present, the migrant population going to these countries is not so much from India, it may reach alarming level in the coming years.
A large country like India with huge population and large scale unemployment level that would cause social unrest to some extent can be a matter of global concern. Sometime back, a former US President made what looked like an unwise remark that Indians eat too much that has caused world food shortage.
Certainly, this statement of former US President is obnoxious, since Indians do not eat too much. However, it reminds one of the problems that would be caused by over populated large country like India.
It is a fact that during the last ten years of governance, Prime Minister Modi has not paid sufficient attention to the population density issue in India and steady growth of population. Modi has appointed a committee was appointed to study this aspect.
One hopes that during the third term Modi, he will highlight this problem and take some measures to curb the population growth to the extent possible.
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*Trustee, Nandini Voice For The Deprived, Chennai
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