Urban unemployment in India rose from 4.7% first quarter to 6.6% last quarter, 2017-18; jobs declined: CMIE-BSE

By A Representative
A recent survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), India's leading business information company, in partnership with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), has said that the unemployment rate in the country's urban areas in the four quarters of 2017-18 has risen steadily -- from 4.7 per cent in the first quarter to 5 per cent then 5.7 per cent and finally 6.6 per cent in the last quarter.
Claiming to be the producer of "high quality, fast frequency employment/ unemployment statistics", with a sample size that is "larger than that deployed by the Government of India's top data collecting centre, National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), the CMIE-BSE survey has also found that rural unemployment too has been rising.
"It was 3.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18 and then it was 3.6 per cent in the second quarter. Then it rose to 4.4 per cent in the third quarter and finally to 5.4 per cent in the last quarter", an analysis, carried out by top CMIE functionary Mahesh Vyas, has revealed.
According to Vyas, "The overall unemployment rate has risen from 4 per cent in the first quarter to 4.1 per cent in the second, 4.9 per cent in the third and then 5.8 per cent in the last quarter. During the last quarter, the unemployment rate increased steadily from 5 per cent in January 2018 to 6.1 per cent in February to 6.3 per cent in March 2018."
Ironically, the unemployment estimates come alongside well-known Indian English writer Chetan Bhagat, known to for his pro-Narendra Modi stances, reporting the results of what are called "yuppy survey" using his Twitter handle, which found that 87 per cent of the 20,000 respondents said it was ‘difficult’ to ‘very difficult’ to find a job.

Bhagat's "yuppy survey" further revealed that 61 per cent of the respondents said they expected anywhere between Rs 5,000 to Rs 15,000 a month. Referring to Bhagat's survey, the CMIE analyst says, "Chetan takes care to qualify that this is not a scientific survey. But, the sample size is large enough for more than just a dekko." He asks, "Where has the aspirational young Indian of 2014 vanished?"
Even as pointing out that the CMIE-BSE estimates of the last quarter are preliminary, Vyas says, "These will be finalised in the middle of May 2018 to account for non-responses", though historically, these revisions have been small and do not make any material difference to the broad inferences." He insists, "And the inference is clear -- that unemployment is rising and jobs are not."
Providing "preliminary estimations", the top analyst says, these suggest that "jobs did not increase during 2017-18 compared to 2016-17". These have declined from 406.7 million in fiscal 2016-17 to 407 million in fiscal 2017-18 -- a fall of about 0.7 million, or seven lakh, in a year, suggesting that the Government of India claims about rise in employment opportunities are not true.
CMIE-BSE estimates come even as the Government of India is all set to launch its enterprise survey to measure employment in medium, small and micro enterprises, with a special focus on the unorganised sector, i.e. enterprises that employ less than 10 workers. To be conducted by the Labour Bureau, it will use the 2013-14 Economic Census as its base.

While the results of the survey are expected by late 2018 or early 2019, ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the CMIE analyst says, an enterprise survey may be useful to understand the distribution of employment by industry, by type of organisation of employment (public sector, private sector, etc) or nature of employment (part-time, full-time, permanent or temporary).
But he adds, it "cannot provide any estimate of the unemployment rate or the number of unemployed persons, which is our biggest challenge. A measure of the unemployment rate or the number of unemployed persons can only be found by conducting a household survey based on a large and representative sample."
Pointing out that the enterprise survey "is not an Economic Census either", Vyas says, "Given that an Economic Census is supposed to be conducted every five years and the last one was done in 2013-14, a new Economic Census is due now. But, how does that fit into this survey of the unorganised sector? The motivation for the new survey is that the government hopes to show that employment has increased in the unorganised sector."

Comments

Mitul said…

Joblessness wil be the sole opposition party in 2019

April 06, 2018

Anonymous said…

When unemployment is high we don’t look at another genuine problem of under employment. Those employed are unable to earn $2/head/day for each member of their families. India is survived because of the informal sector.

April 06, 2018

From algorithms to exploitation: New report exposes plight of India's gig workers

By Jag Jivan The recent report, "State of Finance in India Report 2024-25," released by a coalition including the Centre for Financial Accountability, Focus on the Global South, and other organizations, paints a stark picture of India's burgeoning digital economy, particularly highlighting the exploitation faced by gig workers on platform-based services.

India’s road to sustainability: Why alternative fuels matter beyond electric vehicles

By Suyash Gupta* India’s worsening air quality makes the shift towards clean mobility urgent. However, while electric vehicles (EVs) are central to India’s strategy, they alone cannot address the country’s diverse pollution and energy challenges.

Countrywide protest by gig workers puts spotlight on algorithmic exploitation

By A Representative A nationwide protest led largely by women gig and platform workers was held across several states on February 3, with the Gig & Platform Service Workers Union (GIPSWU) claiming the mobilisation as a success and a strong assertion of workers’ rights against what it described as widespread exploitation by digital platform companies. Demonstrations took place in Delhi, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Maharashtra and other states, covering major cities including New Delhi, Jaipur, Bengaluru and Mumbai, along with multiple districts across the country.

Over 40% of gig workers earn below ₹15,000 a month: Economic Survey

By A Representative The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, while reviewing the Economic Survey in Parliament on Tuesday, highlighted the rapid growth of gig and platform workers in India. According to the Survey, the number of gig workers has increased from 7.7 million to around 12 million, marking a growth of about 55 percent. Their share in the overall workforce is projected to rise from 2 percent to 6.7 percent, with gig workers expected to contribute approximately ₹2.35 lakh crore to the GDP by 2030. The Survey also noted that over 40 percent of gig workers earn less than ₹15,000 per month.

Swami Vivekananda's views on caste and sexuality were 'painfully' regressive

By Bhaskar Sur* Swami Vivekananda now belongs more to the modern Hindu mythology than reality. It makes a daunting job to discover the real human being who knew unemployment, humiliation of losing a teaching job for 'incompetence', longed in vain for the bliss of a happy conjugal life only to suffer the consequent frustration.

Budget 2026 focuses on pharma and medical tourism, overlooks public health needs: JSAI

By A Representative Jan Swasthya Abhiyan India (JSAI) has criticised the Union Budget 2026, stating that it overlooks core public health needs while prioritising the pharmaceutical industry, private healthcare, medical tourism, public-private partnerships, and exports related to AYUSH systems. In a press note issued from New Delhi, the public health network said that primary healthcare services and public health infrastructure continue to remain underfunded despite repeated policy assurances.

Jayanthi Natarajan "never stood by tribals' rights" in MNC Vedanta's move to mine Niyamigiri Hills in Odisha

By A Representative The Odisha Chapter of the Campaign for Survival and Dignity (CSD), which played a vital role in the struggle for the enactment of historic Forest Rights Act, 2006 has blamed former Union environment minister Jaynaynthi Natarjan for failing to play any vital role to defend the tribals' rights in the forest areas during her tenure under the former UPA government. Countering her recent statement that she rejected environmental clearance to Vendanta, the top UK-based NMC, despite tremendous pressure from her colleagues in Cabinet and huge criticism from industry, and the claim that her decision was “upheld by the Supreme Court”, the CSD said this is simply not true, and actually she "disrespected" FRA.

Death behind locked doors in East Kolkata: A fire that exposed systemic neglect

By Atanu Roy* It was Sunday at midnight. Around 30 migrant workers were in deep sleep after a hard day’s work. A devastating fire engulfed the godown where they were sleeping. There was no escape route for the workers, as the door was locked and no firefighting system was installed. Rules of the land were violated as usual. The fire continued for days, despite the sincere efforts of fire brigade personnel. The bodies were charred in the intense heat and were beyond identification, not fit for immediate forensic examination. As a result, nobody knows the exact death toll; estimates are hovering around 21 as of now.

When compassion turns lethal: Euthanasia and the fear of becoming a burden

By Deepika A 55-year-old acquaintance passed away recently after a long battle with cancer. Why so many people are dying relatively young is a question being raised in several forums, and that debate is best reserved for another day. This individual was kept on a ventilator for nearly five months, after which the doctors and the family finally decided to let go. The cost of keeping a person on life support for such extended periods is enormous. Yet families continue to spend vast sums even when the chances of survival are minimal. Life, we are told, is precious, and nature itself strives to protect and sustain it.

Search This Blog