Skip to main content

Modi's demonetization was bad idea, is badly executed, would lead to institutional failure, warns "The Economist"

Demonetization as seen by "The Economist" 
By A Representative
In a scathing critique of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization drive, top British weekly “The Economist”, in its print edition dated December 3, has controversially commented that that “withdrawing 86% by value of the cash in circulation in India was a bad idea”, and is being “badly executed.”
Quoting John Maynard Keynes, whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics following post-first world war recession, “The Economist” quotes him as disapproving of VI Lenin’s demonetization in Soviet Russia in 1919 thus: “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.”
“Trust is fragile, and precious”, “The Economist” warns in its commentary titled “The dire consequences of India’s demonetisation initiative”, adding, “Managing an economy’s money is among the most important tasks of the government. Clumsy use of monetary instruments comes with high risk.”
The weekly insists, “More financially mature economies than India would struggle to cope with such a scheme, but this one floundered at once. Though Indians have until the end of the year to swap their defunct bills, the roll-out of new ones has been bungled.”
Pointing out that critics are “rightly” aghast, the powerful periodical which is most widely read among intelligentsia across the world, the weekly says, “Much of the wealth of those enriched by the black economy would be insulated, because lots of their lucre is held not in cash but in property, gold or jewellery.”
It adds, “Such heavy-handed measures could undermine the credibility of important government institutions. Fear that they might be used again in future could weaken confidence in the currency as a store of value—paving the way for some broader institutional failure, like hyperinflation.”
Underlining that “long-run trust in the judgment of the state might be threatened”, the weekly says, “A broad cash crunch and broken supply chains threaten a sharp economic slowdown... India’s ‘demonetisation’ is a cautionary tale of the reckless misuse of one of the most potent of policy tools: control over an economy’s money.”
“Some economists hope the money will be recycled back into the economy through a fiscal stimulus, which might help soothe some of the pain caused by demonetization”, “The Economist” says, though adding, “The status of this would-be windfall is uncertain.”
“However clever the plan looked on paper”, the weekly says, “It is both extraordinarily blunt and risky. Demonetisation will probably make only limited strides in shrinking the black economy while affecting all of India’s 1.3bn citizens, the poorest most of all.”
“In much of the Indian economy, and especially outside big cities, where cash transactions are most common and financial infrastructure least developed, the sudden invalidation of a vast amount of outstanding currency represents a significant monetary shock”, it says.
“Not all of India’s shadow economy—which provides real employment and income, if not real tax revenues—can migrate quickly and easily above board. Whatever cannot easily be shifted represents a potential loss of economic activity, and a drag on broader Indian economic growth”, it predicts.
“Similarly”, it says, “If a cash crunch forces small firms without access to credit to shut down, the eventual alleviation of the cash shortage might not lead to an immediate and complete revival of economic activity.”

Comments

TRENDING

From algorithms to exploitation: New report exposes plight of India's gig workers

By Jag Jivan   The recent report, "State of Finance in India Report 2024-25," released by a coalition including the Centre for Financial Accountability, Focus on the Global South, and other organizations, paints a stark picture of India's burgeoning digital economy, particularly highlighting the exploitation faced by gig workers on platform-based services. 

'Condonation of war crimes against women and children’: IPSN on Trump’s Gaza Board

By A Representative   The India-Palestine Solidarity Network (IPSN) has strongly condemned the announcement of a proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza and Palestine by former US President Donald J. Trump, calling it an initiative that “condones war crimes against children and women” and “rubs salt in Palestinian wounds.”

Gig workers hold online strike on republic day; nationwide protests planned on February 3

By A Representative   Gig and platform service workers across the country observed a nationwide online strike on Republic Day, responding to a call given by the Gig & Platform Service Workers Union (GIPSWU) to protest what it described as exploitation, insecurity and denial of basic worker rights in the platform economy. The union said women gig workers led the January 26 action by switching off their work apps as a mark of protest.

India’s road to sustainability: Why alternative fuels matter beyond electric vehicles

By Suyash Gupta*  India’s worsening air quality makes the shift towards clean mobility urgent. However, while electric vehicles (EVs) are central to India’s strategy, they alone cannot address the country’s diverse pollution and energy challenges.

Jayanthi Natarajan "never stood by tribals' rights" in MNC Vedanta's move to mine Niyamigiri Hills in Odisha

By A Representative The Odisha Chapter of the Campaign for Survival and Dignity (CSD), which played a vital role in the struggle for the enactment of historic Forest Rights Act, 2006 has blamed former Union environment minister Jaynaynthi Natarjan for failing to play any vital role to defend the tribals' rights in the forest areas during her tenure under the former UPA government. Countering her recent statement that she rejected environmental clearance to Vendanta, the top UK-based NMC, despite tremendous pressure from her colleagues in Cabinet and huge criticism from industry, and the claim that her decision was “upheld by the Supreme Court”, the CSD said this is simply not true, and actually she "disrespected" FRA.

Stands 'exposed': Cavalier attitude towards rushed construction of Char Dham project

By Bharat Dogra*  The nation heaved a big sigh of relief when the 41 workers trapped in the under-construction Silkyara-Barkot tunnel (Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand) were finally rescued on November 28 after a 17-day rescue effort. All those involved in the rescue effort deserve a big thanks of the entire country. The government deserves appreciation for providing all-round support.

Whither space for the marginalised in Kerala's privately-driven townships after landslides?

By Ipshita Basu, Sudheesh R.C.  In the early hours of July 30 2024, a landslide in the Wayanad district of Kerala state, India, killed 400 people. The Punjirimattom, Mundakkai, Vellarimala and Chooralmala villages in the Western Ghats mountain range turned into a dystopian rubble of uprooted trees and debris.

Over 40% of gig workers earn below ₹15,000 a month: Economic Survey

By A Representative   The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, while reviewing the Economic Survey in Parliament on Tuesday, highlighted the rapid growth of gig and platform workers in India. According to the Survey, the number of gig workers has increased from 7.7 million to around 12 million, marking a growth of about 55 percent. Their share in the overall workforce is projected to rise from 2 percent to 6.7 percent, with gig workers expected to contribute approximately ₹2.35 lakh crore to the GDP by 2030. The Survey also noted that over 40 percent of gig workers earn less than ₹15,000 per month.

Fragmented opposition and identity politics shaping Tamil Nadu’s 2026 election battle

By Syed Ali Mujtaba*  Tamil Nadu is set to go to the polls in April 2026, and the political battle lines are beginning to take shape. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the state on January 23, 2026, marked the formal launch of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign against the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). Addressing multiple public meetings, the Prime Minister accused the DMK government of corruption, criminality, and dynastic politics, and called for Tamil Nadu to be “freed from DMK’s chains.” PM Modi alleged that the DMK had turned Tamil Nadu into a drug-ridden state and betrayed public trust by governing through what he described as “Corruption, Mafia and Crime,” derisively terming it “CMC rule.” He claimed that despite making numerous promises, the DMK had failed to deliver meaningful development. He also targeted what he described as the party’s dynastic character, arguing that the government functioned primarily for the benefit of a single family a...