The long-simmering border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand has escalated into open violence, with both sides exchanging artillery and air fire near the ancient Preah Vihear temple complex. At the time of writing, reports of what is happening on the ground are still unclear. In Surin province a petrol station and 7-11 were hit, supposedly by a missile, killing two civilians; a Thai F-16 fighter jet has also reportedly been downed. This latest flare-up seems to be the most serious military clash between the neighbouring nations since the Cold War, reviving historical tensions that date back to colonial-era border disputes.
The conflict's origins trace to 1962 when the International Court of Justice awarded sovereignty of the 11th century Khmer temple to Cambodia, though the surrounding territory remained contested. Periodic flare-ups occurred over subsequent decades, most notably in 2008 when Cambodia’s successful UNESCO World Heritage listing for the temple sparked nationalist protests in Thailand. The situation turned deadly in 2011 when sustained fighting killed dozens and displaced thousands before international intervention temporarily calmed tensions.
Recent months saw renewed friction as Cambodia expanded infrastructure near the border while Thailand increased military patrols in the area. In late May, a Cambodian soldier was killed by Royal Thai Army soldiers, sparking huge nationalist protests across Cambodia.
The immediate trigger for this week's violence remains unclear, with each side claiming that the other fired first. Domestic political considerations in both nations seem to be playing a significant role, particularly in Thailand where the Royal Thai Military establishment has historically operated with almost complete autonomy from civilian leadership.
A leaked phone conversation between Cambodian de facto leader Hun Sen (father of current Prime Minister Hun Manet) and then Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra last month revealed attempts at private diplomacy amid the public crisis. Paetongtarn sought to calm tensions, urging restraint, while Hun Sen expressed frustration over Thai military movements near the border.
In the call Paetongtarn expresses her dismay at her lack of control over the Royal Thai Military at the border. She said, regarding a Royal Thai Military General, “He is on the opposite side (to her)”. This was a clear reference to an open secret in the region: that the Royal Thai Army—responsible for more coups than any other military in modern history—does not answer to a civilian parliament.
The leaking of the phone call led to Paetongtarns dismissal as Prime Minister by the Constitutional Court a few weeks later, severely weakening the Phue Thai party’s already fragile coalition. The pro-peasant Phue Thai party has repeatedly been ousted from government via military coup d'état in the past two decades. As such, the recent tension on the border, and outbreak of all out war, cannot be viewed in isolation as a simple State-on-State or Thailand vs Cambodia battle.
Hun Sen had ruled Cambodia for 38 years (1985–2023) before transferring power to his son, Hun Manet, in August 2023. In an oddly similar circumstance, Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Both fathers are considered the real powers behind the office and historically enjoyed close family ties; it was revealed by Wikileaks that Thaksin even backed Hun Sen on Cambodia’s claim to the Preah Vihear Temple around 2009. Indeed, in the leaked phone call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, she refers to him as "uncle".
However, since the leaked call—which, by all accounts, came intentionally from Hun Sen’s side—the relationship has rapidly deteriorated. Since Pheu Thai retook office in 2023 after nearly a decade of military rule, it has faced immense pressure from both ultra-nationalist military loyalists and the newly formed liberal People’s Party. Many in the military would like nothing more than to see Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra family completely expelled from Thai politics due to their pro-peasant populist policies. The recent military escalation on the border—almost confirmed by Paetongtarn as politically motivated—appears to be an attempt to destabilise Pheu Thai’s fragile coalition majority in parliament.
Similarly, it seems Hun Sen has switched sides, so to speak, abandoning any loyalty to the Shinawatras. In return, nationalist sentiment in Cambodia can be used to assuage mounting issues like currency depreciation, wage stagnation, and growing youth unemployment—while also helping legitimise the leadership transition to his son, Hun Manet.
The current clashes present concerns because of changed military capabilities on both sides. Cambodia has recently acquired new drones and artillery systems, while Thailand has invested in advanced fighter jets and missile technology – notably Saab fighter jets from Sweden. This arms build-up increases the risk that any confrontation could rapidly escalate. Several thousand civilians have reportedly already fled villages near the fighting, with border crossings closed and trade cancelled.
ASEAN has called for restraint but faces challenges mediating between member states with competing territorial claims. The regional body's consensus-based approach makes decisive intervention unlikely unless fighting spreads to other disputed areas along the border.
Historical patterns suggest that the current fighting could follow one of two paths: either a rapid de-escalation as both sides pull back from further confrontation, or a prolonged stalemate that draws in international mediators. With nationalist sentiment running high in both capitals and military establishments wary of appearing weak, the coming days will prove crucial.
At its core, the conflict over Preah Vihear dispute represents more than just a border quarrel - it encapsulates the enduring challenges of post-colonial boundaries, the difficulty of reconciling historical claims with modern realities and the sometimes invisible domestic power struggles that take place in the capitals.
The conflict has already devastated rural communities on both sides. During the 2011 clashes over Preah Vihear temple, over 30,000 Cambodian villagers were forced to flee, many losing crops and livestock that sustained their families. On the Thai side, provinces like Surin saw cross-border trade—normally worth billions annually—plummet by 60% during tensions, starving markets that thousands depend on.
Landmines remain a grim legacy, with uncleared fields, and reportedly new mines, still claiming limbs and lives. Both countries have militarised border zones, forcing rural families into instability, with children’s education and healthcare access often compromised. The politicisation of the dispute has further marginalised these communities, as nationalist rhetoric drowns out their own day-to-day economic and humanitarian struggles. As artillery shells once again fall around the ancient temple, the human and political costs of this conflict continue to mount.
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This article was produced by Globetrotter. Kay Young is a writer and editor at DinDeng journal (Thailand). He has a forthcoming book on Thai revolutionary history with LeftWord Books (India)
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